selected publications

• conference proceeding

  • Change in the tropical Hadley cell since 1950.  85-120. 2002
  • Interdecadal change in the Asia-Africa summer monsoon and its associated changes in global atmospheric circulation.  Global and Planetary Change. 171-188. 2000

• journal article

  • Potential Predictability of Two-Year Droughts in the Missouri River Basin.  Journal of Climate. 3413-3432. 2024
  • A New GFSv15 With FV3 Dynamical Core Based Climate Model Large Ensemble and Its Application to Understanding Climate Variability, and Predictability.  Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres. 2024
  • Changes to Middle East and Southwest Asia Compound Drought and Heat since 1999.  Journal of Climate. 269-287. 2024
  • Why Has the Summertime Central US Warming Hole Not Disappeared?.  Journal of Climate. 7319-7336. 2023
  • Multidecadal Oceanic Modulation of Summer Precipitation in North China in 1200-Year Global Climate Simulations.  Journal of Climate. 6125-6138. 2023
  • Recent High Missouri River Basin Runoff Was Unlikely Caused by Climate Change.  Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology. 657-675. 2023
  • Water Year 2021 Compound Precipitation and Temperature Extremes in California and Nevada.  Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. E2905-E2911. 2022
  • Diagnosing Hawaii's Recent Drought.  Journal of Climate. 3997-4012. 2022
  • Record Low North American Monsoon Rainfall in 2020 Reignites Drought over the American Southwest.  Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. S26-S32. 2022
  • Explaining the Spatial Pattern of US Extreme Daily Precipitation Change.  Journal of Climate. 2759-2775. 2021
  • Facility for Weather and Climate Assessments (FACTS) A Community Resource for Assessing Weather and Climate Variability.  Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. E1214-E1224. 2020
  • Tropical Widening From Global Variations to Regional Impacts.  Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. E897-E904. 2020
  • Experiment design of the International CLIVAR C20C+ Detection and Attribution project.  Weather and Climate Extremes. 2019
  • Recent Tropical Expansion: Natural Variability or Forced Response?.  Journal of Climate. 1551-1571. 2019
  • ANTHROPOGENIC CONTRIBUTIONS TO THE INTENSITY OF THE 2017 UNITED STATES NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS DROUGHT.  Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. S19-S24. 2019
  • On the Time of Emergence of Tropical Width Change.  Journal of Climate. 7225-7236. 2018
  • Ship- and island-based soundings from the 2016 El Nino Rapid Response (ENRR) field campaign.  Earth System Science Data. 1165-1183. 2018
  • ADVANCING SCIENCE AND SERVICES DURING THE 2015/16 EL NINO The NOAA El Nino Rapid Response Field Campaign.  Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. 975-1002. 2018
  • EXTREME CALIFORNIA RAINS DURING WINTER 2015/16: A CHANGE IN EL NINO TELECONNECTION?.  Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. S49-S53. 2018
  • Predictability and Prediction of Southern California Rains during Strong El Nino Events: A Focus on the Failed 2016 Winter Rains.  Journal of Climate. 555-574. 2018
  • Climatology and Interannual Variability of Boreal Spring Wet Season Precipitation in the Eastern Horn of Africa and Implications for Its Recent Decline.  Journal of Climate. 3867-3886. 2017
  • Identifying the predictable and unpredictable patterns of spring-to-autumn precipitation over eastern China.  Climate Dynamics. 3183-3206. 2017
  • Urban warming in the 2013 summer heat wave in eastern China.  Climate Dynamics. 3015-3033. 2017
  • Reconciling Theories for Human and Natural Attribution of Recent East Africa Drying.  Journal of Climate. 1939-1957. 2017
  • Predictable signals in seasonal mean soil moisture simulated with observation-based atmospheric forcing over China.  Climate Dynamics. 2373-2395. 2016
  • Characterizing Recent Trends in U.S. Heavy Precipitation.  Journal of Climate. 2313-2332. 2016
  • How Has Human-Induced Climate Change Affected California Drought Risk?.  Journal of Climate. 111-120. 2016
  • HOW UNUSUAL WAS THE COLD WINTER OF 2013/14 IN THE UPPER MIDWEST?.  Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. S10-S14. 2015
  • Interannual variability of autumn to spring seasonal precipitation in eastern China.  Climate Dynamics. 253-271. 2015
  • Observed and SST-forced multidecadal variability in global land surface air temperature.  Climate Dynamics. 359-369. 2015
  • Understanding Recent Eastern Horn of Africa Rainfall Variability and Change.  Journal of Climate. 8630-8645. 2014
  • Intensification of decadal and multi-decadal sea level variability in the western tropical Pacific during recent decades.  Climate Dynamics. 1357-1379. 2014
  • NORTHEAST COLORADO EXTREME RAINS INTERPRETED IN A CLIMATE CHANGE CONTEXT.  Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. S15-S18. 2014
  • How Fast Are the Tropics Expanding?.  Journal of Climate. 1999-2013. 2014
  • THE MAKING OF AN EXTREME EVENT.  Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. 427-440. 2014
  • Predictable signals of seasonal precipitation in the Yangtze-Huaihe River Valley.  International Journal of Climatology. 3002-3015. 2013
  • Anatomy of an Extreme Event.  Journal of Climate. 2811-2832. 2013
  • Is a Transition to Semipermanent Drought Conditions Imminent in the US Great Plains?.  Journal of Climate. 8380-8386. 2012
  • Baseline Probabilities for the Seasonal Prediction of Meteorological Drought.  Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology. 1222-1237. 2012
  • Prospects for Dynamical Prediction of Meteorological Drought.  Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology. 1238-1252. 2012
  • On the Increased Frequency of Mediterranean Drought.  Journal of Climate. 2146-2161. 2012
  • On North American Decadal Climate for 2011-20.  Journal of Climate. 4519-4528. 2011
  • Was there a basis for anticipating the 2010 Russian heat wave?.  Geophysical Research Letters. 2011
  • Contribution of sea ice loss to Arctic amplification.  Geophysical Research Letters. 2010
  • Patterns of Indian Ocean sea-level change in a warming climate.  Nature Geoscience. 546-550. 2010
  • Distinct causes for two principal US droughts of the 20th century.  Geophysical Research Letters. 2009
  • Modelling the influence of North Atlantic multidecadal warmth on the Indian summer rainfall.  Geophysical Research Letters. 2008
  • Explaining the record US warmth of 2006.  Geophysical Research Letters. 2007
  • Seasonality in SST-forced atmospheric short-term climate predictability.  Journal of Climate. 3090-3108. 2004