The predictability of the magnetosphere and space weather
Journal Article
Overview
abstract
Yogi Berra once observed, apparently paraphrasing Niels Bohr, “Prediction is difficult, especially about the future.”Berra's and Bohr's backgrounds, respectively, in baseball and quantum mechanics, probably prejudiced them, since recent studies show that, at least in geophysics, not everything is as difficult to predict as the path of a knuckle ball or an electron through a double slit. Large‐scale magnetospheric activity we believe, is quite predictable, given solar wind conditions. For example, in Figure 1 we show the long‐term variation of radiation belt electrons and the Dst index for approximately the last solar cycle. The long‐term variation of radiation belt electrons and the Dst index provides evidence that radiation belt electrons and geomagnetic activity on average, have a systematic response to the solar wind.
