Emerging climate impact on carbon sinks in a consolidated carbon budget Journal Article uri icon

Overview

abstract

  • Abstract; ; Despite the adoption of the Paris Agreement 10 years ago, carbon dioxide (CO; 2; ) emissions from burning fossil fuels continue to increase, pushing atmospheric CO; 2; levels to 423 ppm in 2024 and driving human-induced warming to 1.36 °C, within years of breaching the 1.5 °C limit; 1,2; . Accurate reporting of anthropogenic and natural CO; 2; sources and sinks is a prerequisite to tracking the effectiveness of climate policy and detecting carbon-sink responses to climate change. Yet notable mismatches between reported emissions and sinks have so far prevented confident interpretation of their trends and drivers; 1; . Here we present and integrate recent advances in observations and process understanding to address some long-standing issues in global carbon budget estimates. We show that the magnitude of the natural land sink is substantially smaller than previously estimated, whereas net emissions from anthropogenic land-use change are revised upwards; 1; . The ocean sink is 15% larger than the land sink, consistent with recent evidence from oceanic and atmospheric observations; 3,4; . Climate change reduces the efficiency of the sinks, particularly on land, contributing 8.3 ± 1.4 ppm to the atmospheric CO; 2; increase since 1960. The combined effects of climate change and deforestation have turned Southeast Asian and large parts of South American tropical forests from CO; 2; sinks to sources. This underscores the need to halt deforestation and limit warming to prevent further loss of carbon stored on land. Improved confidence in assessments of CO; 2; sources and sinks is fundamental for effective climate policy.;

publication date

  • January 1, 2026

Date in CU Experts

  • June 4, 2026 4:31 AM

Full Author List

  • Friedlingstein P; Le Quéré C; O’Sullivan M; Hauck J; Landschützer P; Luijkx IT; Li H; van der Woude A; Schwingshackl C; Pongratz J

author count

  • 24

published in

Other Profiles

International Standard Serial Number (ISSN)

  • 0028-0836

Electronic International Standard Serial Number (EISSN)

  • 1476-4687

Additional Document Info

start page

  • 98

end page

  • 103

volume

  • 649

issue

  • 8095