selected publications

• conference proceeding

  • A global view of air-sea thermal coupling and related non-Gaussian SST variability.  Atmospheric Research. 140-149. 2007
  • An empirical-dynamical extended range forecast model incorporating tropical diabatic forcing.  99-102. 2001
  • Changes of subseasonal variability associated with El Nino.  74-81. 2001
  • Climate model biases introduced by parameterized orographic gravity wave drag.  21-24. 2001
  • The annual and semi-annual cycles of atmospheric angular momentum.  263-263. 1999
  • Barotropic rossby wave dynamics of zonally varying upper level flows during northern winter.  187-188. 1995

• journal article

  • ESD Ideas: Translating historical extreme weather events into a warmer world.  Earth System Dynamics. 1081-1084. 2023
  • Improving Atmospheric Models by Accounting for Chaotic Physics.  Journal of Climate. 5569-5585. 2023
  • Northern Hemisphere Extratropical Cyclone Activity in the Twentieth Century Reanalysis Version 3 (20CRv3) and Its Relationship with Continental Extreme Temperatures.  Atmosphere. 2022
  • Influence of warming and atmospheric circulation changes on multidecadal European flood variability.  Climate of the Past. 919-933. 2022
  • A mechanism for the skew of ensemble forecasts.  Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society. 1131-1143. 2022
  • Inconsistent Global Kinetic Energy Spectra in Reanalyses and Models.  Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences. 2589-2603. 2021
  • An Evaluation of the Performance of the Twentieth Century Reanalysis Version 3.  Journal of Climate. 1417-1438. 2021
  • Impact of Annual Cycle on ENSO Variability and Predietability.  Journal of Climate. 171-193. 2021
  • Uncertainties in Ocean Latent Heat Flux Variations over Recent Decades in Satellite-Based Estimates and Reduced Observation Reanalyses.  Journal of Climate. 8415-8437. 2020
  • Does ENSO Regularity Increase in a Warming Climate?.  Journal of Climate. 1247-1259. 2020
  • Towards a more reliable historical reanalysis: Improvements for version 3 of the Twentieth Century Reanalysis system.  Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society. 2876-2908. 2019
  • Predictability of US West Coast Ocean Temperatures is not solely due to ENSO.  Scientific Reports. 2019
  • What Is the Impact of Additional Tropical Observations on a Modern Data Assimilation System?.  Monthly Weather Review. 2433-2449. 2019
  • Sensitivities of the NCEP Global Forecast System.  Monthly Weather Review. 1237-1256. 2019
  • On the Dynamical Mechanisms Governing El Nino-Southern Oscillation Irregularity.  Journal of Climate. 8401-8419. 2018
  • The Nature of the Stochastic Wind Forcing of ENSO.  Journal of Climate. 8081-8099. 2018
  • ADVANCING SCIENCE AND SERVICES DURING THE 2015/16 EL NINO The NOAA El Nino Rapid Response Field Campaign.  Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. 975-1002. 2018
  • Are we near the predictability limit of tropical Indo-Pacific sea surface temperatures?.  Geophysical Research Letters. 8520-8529. 2017
  • Is El Nino really changing?.  Geophysical Research Letters. 8548-8556. 2017
  • An ensemble of ocean reanalyses for 1815-2013 with sparse observational input.  Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans. 6891-6910. 2016
  • Need for Caution in Interpreting Extreme Weather Statistics.  Journal of Climate. 9166-9187. 2015
  • Southward shift of the northern tropical belt from 1945 to 1980.  Nature Geoscience. 969-U110. 2015
  • Optimal precursors of different types of ENSO events.  Geophysical Research Letters. 9952-9960. 2015
  • Dynamical Downscaling and Loss Modeling for the Reconstruction of Historical Weather Extremes and Their Impacts: A Severe Foehn Storm in 1925.  Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. 2015
  • A twentieth-century reanalysis forced ocean model to reconstruct the North Atlantic climate variation during the 1920s.  Climate Dynamics. 1935-1955. 2015
  • Understanding the distinctively skewed and heavy tailed character of atmospheric and oceanic probability distributions.  Chaos: an interdisciplinary journal of nonlinear science. 2015
  • Pacific Walker Circulation variability in coupled and uncoupled climate models.  Climate Dynamics. 103-117. 2014
  • Is the storminess in the Twentieth Century Reanalysis really inconsistent with observations? A reply to the comment by Krueger et al. (2013b).  Climate Dynamics. 1113-1125. 2014
  • Independent confirmation of global land warming without the use of station temperatures.  Geophysical Research Letters. 3170-3174. 2013
  • Trends and low frequency variability of extra-tropical cyclone activity in the ensemble of twentieth century reanalysis.  Climate Dynamics. 2775-2800. 2013
  • Relative Contributions of Synoptic and Low-Frequency Eddies to Time-Mean Atmospheric Moisture Transport, Including the Role of Atmospheric Rivers.  Journal of Climate. 7341-7361. 2012
  • Alternative interpretations of power-law distributions found in nature.  Chaos: an interdisciplinary journal of nonlinear science. 2012
  • Extreme winds at northern mid-latitudes since 1871.  Meteorologische Zeitschrift. 13-27. 2012
  • Sensitivity of the northeast Asian summer monsoon to tropical sea surface temperatures.  Geophysical Research Letters. 2011
  • Prospects for Improving Subseasonal Predictions.  Monthly Weather Review. 3648-3666. 2011
  • Critical influence of the pattern of Tropical Ocean warming on remote climate trends.  Climate Dynamics. 1577-1591. 2011
  • The Twentieth Century Reanalysis Project.  Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society. 1-28. 2011
  • Removing ENSO-related variations from the climate record (vol 23, pg 1957, 2010).  Journal of Climate. 6124-6127. 2010
  • Realism of local and remote feedbacks on tropical sea surface temperatures in climate models.  Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres. 2010
  • Optimal Tropical Sea Surface Temperature Forcing of North American Drought.  Journal of Climate. 3907-3917. 2010
  • Removing ENSO-Related Variations from the Climate Record.  Journal of Climate. 1957-1978. 2010
  • THE 1918/19 EL NINO.  Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. 177-183. 2010
  • How Important Is Air-Sea Coupling in ENSO and MJO Evolution?.  Journal of Climate. 2958-2977. 2009
  • Reconciling Non-Gaussian Climate Statistics with Linear Dynamics.  Journal of Climate. 1193-1207. 2009
  • Oceanic influences on recent continental warming.  Climate Dynamics. 333-342. 2009
  • Tropical and stratospheric influences on extratropical short-term climate variability.  Journal of Climate. 4326-4347. 2008
  • A Global view of non-Gaussian SST variability.  Journal of Physical Oceanography. 639-647. 2008
  • Multiscale impacts of variable heating in climate.  Journal of Climate. 5677-5695. 2007
  • Sensitivity of global warming to the pattern of tropical ocean warming.  Climate Dynamics. 483-492. 2006
  • Understanding the mid-Holocene climate.  Journal of Climate. 2801-2817. 2006
  • Feasibility of a 100-year reanalysis using only surface pressure data.  Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. 175-+. 2006
  • Tropical climate regimes and global climate sensitivity in a simple setting.  Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences. 1226-1240. 2005
  • Storm track predictability on seasonal and decadal scales.  Journal of Climate. 3701-3720. 2004
  • Dynamic stabilization of atmospheric single column models.  Journal of Climate. 1004-1021. 2004
  • Usefulness of single column model diagnosis through short-term predictions.  Journal of Climate. 3803-3819. 2003
  • A study of subseasonal predictability.  Monthly Weather Review. 1715-1732. 2003
  • Drifts induced by multiplicative red noise with application to climate.  Europhysics Letters: a letters journal exploring the frontiers of physics. 498-504. 2003
  • Global atmospheric sensitivity to tropical SST anomalies throughout the Indo-Pacific basin.  Journal of Climate. 3427-3442. 2002
  • Local time- and space scales of organized tropical deep convection.  Journal of Climate. 2775-2790. 2002
  • A linear model of wintertime low-frequency variability. Part I: Formulation and forecast skill.  Journal of Climate. 4474-4494. 2001
  • Changes of subseasonal variability associated with El Nino.  Journal of Climate. 3356-3374. 2001
  • The effect of ENSO on the intraseasonal variance of surface temperatures in winter.  International Journal of Climatology. 1543-1557. 2000
  • Another look at the annual and semiannual cycles of atmospheric angular momentum.  Journal of Climate. 3221-3238. 2000
  • An assessment of the NCEP, NASA, and ECMWF reanalyses over the tropical west Pacific warm pool.  Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. 41-48. 2000
  • Changes of probability associated with El Nino.  Journal of Climate. 4268-4286. 2000
  • The effect of the 1997/98 El Nino on individual large-scale weather events.  Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. 1399-1411. 1999
  • The balance of global angular momentum in a long-term atmospheric data set.  Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres. 2031-2040. 1999
  • The impact of the annual cycle on the North Pacific North American response to remote low-frequency forcing.  Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences. 1336-1353. 1998
  • A linear theory of extratropical synoptic eddy statistics.  Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences. 237-258. 1998
  • Is the time-mean northern hemisphere flow baroclinically unstable?.  Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences. 41-56. 1998
  • The dynamics of intraseasonal atmospheric angular momentum oscillations.  Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences. 1445-1461. 1997
  • Application of perturbation theory to the stability analysis of realistic atmospheric flows.  Tellus Series A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography. 321-336. 1997
  • Stochastic forcing of the wintertime extratropical flow.  Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences. 435-455. 1997
  • Free barotropic Rossby wave dynamics of the wintertime low-frequency flow.  Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences. 5-23. 1997
  • BAROTROPIC ROSSBY-WAVE DYNAMICS OF ZONALLY VARYING UPPER-LEVEL FLOWS DURING NORTHERN WINTER.  Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences. 3779-3796. 1995
  • ERROR AND SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS OF GEOPHYSICAL EIGENSYSTEMS.  Journal of Climate. 1988-1998. 1995
  • THE OPTIMAL-GROWTH OF TROPICAL SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES.  Journal of Climate. 1999-2024. 1995
  • A CAVEAT CONCERNING SINGULAR-VALUE DECOMPOSITION.  Journal of Climate. 352-360. 1995
  • THE ATMOSPHERIC ANGULAR-MOMENTUM CYCLE-ASSOCIATED WITH A MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION.  Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences. 3194-3208. 1994
  • THE BAROCLINIC CHI PROBLEM AND ITS APPLICATION TO THE DIAGNOSIS OF ATMOSPHERIC HEATING RATES.  Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences. 1099-1112. 1993
  • AN ASSESSMENT OF LOW-FREQUENCY VARIABILITY IN THE TROPICS AS INDICATED BY SOME PROXIES OF TROPICAL CONVECTION.  Journal of Climate. 569-575. 1993
  • FACTORS DETERMINING THE EXTRATROPICAL RESPONSE TO EQUATORIAL DIABATIC HEATING ANOMALIES.  Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences. 907-918. 1993
  • THE DIAGNOSIS OF MECHANICAL DISSIPATION IN THE ATMOSPHERE FROM LARGE-SCALE BALANCE REQUIREMENTS.  Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences. 608-627. 1992
  • The Generation of Global Rotational Flow by Steady Idealized Tropical Divergence.  Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences. 1228-1251. 1988
  • A Diagnostic Study of the Dynamics of the Northern Hemisphere Winter of 1985‐86.  Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society. 759-778. 1987
  • On the derivation of the divergent flow from the rotational flow: The χ problem.  Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society. 339-360. 1987
  • Transient Eddies and the Seasonal Mean Rotational Flow.  Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences. 328-338. 1987
  • Vorticity balances in the tropics during the 1982‐83 El Niñio‐Southern oscillation event.  Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society. 261-278. 1985
  • Spatial Smoothing on the Sphere.  Monthly Weather Review. 2524-2529. 1984
  • The Vorticity Balance in the Tropical Upper Troposphere of a General Circulation Model.  Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences. 768-778. 1984