Abstract. Deadwood is an important yet understudied carbon pool in tropical ecosystems. Deadwood degradation to CO2 through decomposer (microbial, termite) activities is driven by wood moisture and temperature, which are in turn strongly influenced by local climate. Thus, climate data could be used to predict CO2 fluxes from decaying wood. Given the increasing availability of gridded climate data, this link would allow for the rapid estimation of deadwood-related CO2 fluxes from tropical ecosystems worldwide. In this study, we adapted a mechanistic fuel moisture model that uses weather variables (e.g., air temperature, precipitation, solar radiation) to simulate wood moisture and temperature along a rainfall gradient in Queensland, Australia. We then developed a Bayesian statistical relationship between wood moisture and temperature and CO2 flux from pine (Pinus radiata) blocks and combined this relationship with our simulations to predict CO2 fluxes from deadwood at 1 h temporal resolution. We compared our pine-based simulations to the moisture–CO2 relationships from stems of native tree species deployed at the wettest and driest sites. Finally, we integrated fluxes over time to estimate the amount of carbon entering the atmosphere and compared these estimates to measured mass loss in pines and native stems. Our statistical model showed a positive relationship between CO2 fluxes and wood moisture and temperature. Comparing cumulative CO2 with wood mass loss, we observed that carbon from deadwood decomposition is mainly released as CO2 regardless of the precipitation regime. At the dry savanna, only about 20 % of the wood mass loss was decomposed within 48 months, compared to almost 100 % at the wet rainforest, suggesting longer residence times of deadwood compared to wetter sites. However, the amount of carbon released in situ as CO2 is lower when wood blocks are attacked by termites, especially at drier sites. These results highlight the important but understudied role of termites in the breakdown of deadwood in dry climates. Additionally, mass loss–flux relationships of decaying native stems deviated from those of pine blocks. Our results indicate that wood moisture and temperature are necessary but not sufficient for predicting CO2 fluxes from deadwood degradation. Other factors, such as wood traits (wood quality, chemical composition, and stoichiometry) and biotic processes, should be considered in future modeling efforts.;
