Scenario and Model Dependence of Strategic Solar Climate Intervention in CESM | CU Experts

Model dependence in simulated responses to stratospheric aerosol; injection (SAI) is a major uncertainty surrounding the potential; implementation of this solar climate intervention strategy. We identify; large differences in the aerosol mass latitudinal distributions between; two recently produced climate model SAI large ensembles, despite using; similar climate targets and controller algorithms, with the goal of; understanding the drivers of such differences. Using a hierarchy of; recently produced simulations, we identify three main contributors; including: 1) the rapid adjustment of clouds and rainfall to elevated; levels of carbon dioxide, 2) the associated low-frequency dynamical; responses in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, and 3) the; contrasts in future climate forcing scenarios. Each uncertainty is; unlikely to be significantly narrowed over the likely timeframe of a; potential SAI deployment if a 1.5C target is to be met. The results thus; suggest the need for significant flexibility in climate intervention; deployment in order to account for these large uncertainties in the; climate system response.

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