Model-informed COVID-19 vaccine prioritization strategies by age and serostatus. Journal Article uri icon



  • Limited initial supply of SARS-CoV-2 vaccine raises the question of how to prioritize available doses. Here, we used a mathematical model to compare five age-stratified prioritization strategies. A highly effective transmission-blocking vaccine prioritized to adults ages 20-49 years minimized cumulative incidence, but mortality and years of life lost were minimized in most scenarios when the vaccine was prioritized to adults over 60 years old. Use of individual-level serological tests to redirect doses to seronegative individuals improved the marginal impact of each dose while potentially reducing existing inequities in COVID-19 impact. While maximum impact prioritization strategies were broadly consistent across countries, transmission rates, vaccination rollout speeds, and estimates of naturally acquired immunity, this framework can be used to compare impacts of prioritization strategies across contexts.

publication date

  • January 8, 2021

has restriction

  • green

Date in CU Experts

  • January 24, 2021 3:20 AM

Full Author List

  • Bubar KM; Reinholt K; Kissler SM; Lipsitch M; Cobey S; Grad YH; Larremore DB

author count

  • 7

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