A Synthetic Ensemble of Global Ocean Chlorophyll Concentration | CU Experts

Ocean primary production constitutes approximately half of global; biospheric production, affecting both fisheries productivity and; biogeochemical cycling. Although climate change is predicted to affect; the ocean's biological productivity, the extent of the global impact is; poorly quantified. Assessing changes in the ocean biosphere using remote; sensing data is challenged by the relatively short length of the; observational record, restricting our ability to disentangle; fluctuations in internal variability from forced anthropogenic trends.; Additionally, the majority of ocean circulation models with embedded; biogeochemistry do not skillfully predict observational records of ocean; chlorophyll at ocean time series locations. To overcome these; limitations, we have constructed a synthetic ensemble of global ocean; chlorophyll concentration. By employing statistical resampling methods; to the SeaWiFS and MODIS ocean color datasets and creating surrogate; climate modes of ENSO and PDO, we quantify the range of internal climate; variability in the 20 year observational record and create multiple; alternate realities for the possible evolution of the ocean biosphere; over time. Our synthetic ensemble can be used for a variety of purposes,; including diagnosing patterns of internal variability and emergence of; anthropogenic trends in observed chlorophyll, and validating Earth; system model representation of such variability.

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